Week 6 is upon us, highlighted by a late Sunday afternoon matchup pitting rookie QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys against QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at historic Lambeau Field. The week begins on Thursday night with the Broncos looking to bounce back from last week’s surprising loss to the Falcons when they head to San Diego to take on the Chargers. The Browns have a chance to get in the win column when they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans, while the Vikings, the only remaining undefeated team, are on their bye. I went just 5-9 last week to bring my record for the season to 37-40. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick is in red
Byes: Vikings, Buccaneers
Thursday Night Football
Broncos at Chargers (+3.5) – I expect the Broncos to get back on track after the loss to the Falcons in Week 5. QB Trevor Siemian, who sat out last week’s game, is expected to be ready to start this one, and the defense should have an easier time of defending a Chargers offense that isn’t as good as the Falcons.
Sunday 1PM games
49ers at Bills (-7.5) – QB Colin Kaepernick will get his first start of the season for the 49ers after head coach Chip Kelly announced the benching of QB Blaine Gabbert. It’ll be Kaepernick’s first start since Nov. 1, 2015, and it’s unsure how he will perform. The Bills have looked good the last couple of weeks and I think they’ll win the game outright, I think the spread is too high and I’ll go with the 49ers to stay within 7.5 points.
Jaguars at Bears (-2.5) – The Jaguars are coming off their bye, as the Bears look to make it two in a row after picking up their first win of the season last week against the Colts. Both of these teams are evenly matched, but QB Brian Hoyer has been good when starting for the Bears the last couple weeks. I think he’ll outplay Jaguars QB Blake Bortles and win the game for the Bears.
Bengals at Patriots (-9.5) – QB Tom Brady didn’t miss a beat in his first game of the season last week coming off his four-game Deflategate suspension. But that was against the Browns, this week he has to face the Bengals, who — while not great — are better than last week’s opponent. I think the Bengals defense will be able to keep the Patriots offense in check better than Cleveland was able to. Patriots win the game but don’t cover.
Browns at Titans (-6.5) – Titans QB Marcus Mariota had his best game of the season last week, while the Browns lost another quarterback to injury. At this point we don’t know which quarterback will be able to make the start for Cleveland — it could be converted WR Terrelle Pryor. That uncertainty at the quarterback position makes me think the Titans can cover, particularly if RB DeMarco Murray can continue the production he has been putting up so far this season.
Rams at Lions (-3.5) – The Lions are coming off an upset of the previously undefeated Eagles, and now have the Rams coming to town. The Lions have the better offense of the two teams, led by QB Matthew Stafford, but the Rams have the better defense. The Lions can put up points, and I think they win and cover this one.
Steelers at Dolphins (+7.5) – This is one of the bigger mismatches of the week, with the high-powered Steelers offense taking on a Dolphins team that could be the worst in the league. QB Ben Roethlisberger should be able to continue his stellar season that he has been having to this point.
Panthers at Saints (+2.5) – At 1-4, the Panthers are probably the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. They are coming off a loss to the Buccaneers on Monday night, but QB Cam Newton didn’t play in the game. He has now returned to practice and is expected to play this week. RB Jonathan Stewart, who has missed the last couple of games also may be on track to take the field this week. The Panthers know they’re desperate and have to win this game if they want to have any hope of staying in the playoff hunt so I expect them to win this game against a Saints defense that isn’t very good.
Ravens at Giants (-2.5) – This game is a tough one to call. The Ravens have come back to Earth a little after their fast start, and the Giants offense hasn’t lived up to expectations at this point. QB Eli Manning is going to have to do better than he has been for the Giants to win this game. I view this as a toss-up so I’ll take the Ravens getting the points.
Eagles at Redskins (+1.5) – The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season last week, while the Redskins beat the Ravens. Both teams have three wins, one fewer than the NFC East-leading Cowboys, so this is an important game for the divisional race. I think the Eagles have a better team on both sides of the ball, so with just a 1.5-point spread, I expect them to win and cover on the road.
Sunday 4PM games
Chiefs at Raiders (-1.5) – The Raiders look to improve upon their 4-1 record at home in this divisional game. The Raiders offense, led by QB David Carr, has looked good to this point of the season but their defense can give up points. I’m not sure, however, that Chiefs QB Alex Smith will be able to take advantage of that so I’ll go with the Raiders.
Falcons at Seahawks (-6.5) – Coming off the bye, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has had an extra week to try to recover from the minor injuries he’s been dealing with. He played well in his last game before the bye so he should be able to continue that trend. With the way the Falcons are playing, though, I think a 6.5-point spread is too high. The Seahawks defense is one of the better ones that the Falcons have faced so far this season, but I still think QB Matt Ryan will be able to do his thing. Regardless of who wins this game, I don’t expect the differential to be within a touchdown so I’ll take the Falcons and the points.
Cowboys at Packers (-4.5) – This game should be a shootout as both teams rely on their offenses to win games. Packers RB Eddie Lacy injured his ankle in last week’s game and his status for Week 6 is uncertain. That could be a big deal in this game because Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has been one of the top running backs in the league in his rookie season. At quarterback, the Packers clearly have the advantage with Rodgers. If Lacy can’t go, though, that would hurt the Packers. Even if he does play, he might not be at full strength, so I’ll go with the Cowboys and the points.
Sunday Night Football
Colts at Texans (-3.5) – The Texans offense didn’t look good against the Vikings last week, but the Colts defense isn’t nearly in the same class as the Vikings. I expect the Texans to right the ship at home. Even without DE J.J. Watt, the Texans defense is significantly better than the Colts’ so they should be able to cover the spread.
Monday Night Football
Jets at Cardinals (-7.5) – QB Carson Palmer should return for the Cardinals after missing last week’s game while going through the league’s concussion protocol. The Cardinals have the best offense player in this game with RB David Johnson and also have the better defense, but a 7.5-point spread is a lot for a 2-3 team. I think the Cardinals win the game but don’t cover.