The wild card games and division series are in the books, and I did pretty good with my predictions. I got both wild cards right and went 3-for-4 with the division series. Unfortunately, the one I got wrong was the Braves–Dodgers series, and I had the Braves making it all the way to the World Series. With four teams left in the Major League Baseball postseason, I’ll have to change my pick for the National League champion, as the NLCS features the Dodgers and Brewers. In the ALCS, it is the Astros and Red Sox, which means I can stick with my pick of the Astros making it to the World Series, if I still feel that’s going to happen. With the Astros and Dodgers both still alive, we have the possibility of having the same World Series as in 2017, when the Astros won it in seven games. Let’s take a look at my predictions for the National League Championship Series and American League Championship Series.
National League Championship Series
The Brewers swept the Rockies in a fairly noncompetitive NLDS, while the Dodgers needed four games to dispose of the Braves in their series. Both teams won quickly enough that they had enough rest to be able to set their rotations they way they wanted. That means Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw is the projected Game 1 starter for the defending NL champs, and the Brewers will be opposing him with SP Gio Gonzalez, who posted a 2.13 ERA in five regular season starts after being traded to the team at the end of August. Where the Brewers probably have the biggest advantage is in the bullpen, which includes three pitchers — Corey Knebel, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress — who could be a closer on most teams in the majors. The Dodgers’ pen struggled this season, including Kenley Jansen, who isn’t the elite closer he once was.
Offensively, the Brewers have the hottest player on either team in the NL MVP front-runner, OF Christian Yelich, who hit .370 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI in the month of September and added a home run and two steals in the team’s three NLDS games. Brewers 1B Jesus Aguilar also had more than 100 RBI in the regular season. For the Dodgers, IF Max Muncy had a breakout season with 35 home runs and 79 RBI, and veteran OF Matt Kemp had a bit of a resurgence this season, with a team-best 85 RBI to go along with 21 home runs and a .290 average — his best mark since 2012.
The Brewers have the better overall team and are hotter right now, riding an 11-game win streak, including the regular seaso. Add in home-field advantage for Milwaukee, and I think they have a good chance to make it to the World Series for the first time since 1982, and the first time they would be representing the National League in the Fall Classic.
NLCS Prediction: Brewers in six games
American League Championship Series
Like in the National League, the top two seeds in the American League are battling it out in the ALCS. The Astros swept the Indians in three games on the strength of their strong starting pitching, and the Red Sox knocked out their hated rivals the Yankees in four games in their ALDS. Two of the best pitchers of this generation are scheduled to take to the mound for Game 1 Saturday night at Fenway, with SP Justin Verlander going for the Astros and SP Chris Sale for the Red Sox. This is probably the most even pitching matchup we’ll get in the series because after Sale, the Red Sox don’t have starters who can match up with what the Astros are able to throw out there. The rest of Houston’s rotation consists of SPs Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton, while the Red Sox likely have SPs David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello slotted behind Sale. Those guys have been inconsistent this season, while the Astros had the best starters’ ERA and bullpen ERA in the regular season. That bullpen is now anchored by RP Roberto Osuna, who the team traded for during the season, and includes the likes of P Lance McCullers Jr. and RP Collin McHugh. The Red Sox have RP Craig KImbrel at the back of their bullpen to close out games, but the rest of their bullpen is good but not as good as what the Astros have. The pitching advantage definitely goes to Houston.
Both teams have good offenses, but the Red Sox probably have the advantage at the plate. They’re led by AL MVP candidates OF Mookie Betts and DH J.D. Martinez, who both hit well over .300 during the regular season, with Martinez hitting 42 home runs and knocking in 130 RBI. SS Xander Bogaerts hit .288 with 23 homers and 103 RBI, and 3B Rafael Devers also surpassed the 20-homer mark. The Astros’ lineup doesn’t have anyone who can match up to the numbers Martinez put up, but it is deeper and led by 3B Alex Bregman, who hit .286 with 31 home runs and 103 RBI during the season, with another two home runs in the ALDS, during which he hit .556 in the three games. 2B Jose Altuve hit .316 but has a decrease in power with just 13 home runs, and OF George Springer hit .265 with 22 homers, but he hit three dingers in the ALDS and has homered in seven of his 10 postseason games since the start of the 2017 World Series. The biggest question mark for the Astros is the health of SS Carlos Correa, who continues to suffer from back pain that caused him to miss a significant amount of time during the regular season. He was just 1-for-10 in the ALDS, but his hit was a home run.
The Astros’ biggest strength is their starting rotation, while power hitting — and offense in general — is where the Red Sox excelled this season. If the Astros’ pitching is on-point, like it was against the Indians in the ALDS, it may be able to mitigate Boston’s strength, which gives the Astros an advantage in the series.
ALCS Prediction: Astros in six games
So, I am projecting a Brewers-Astros World Series, which would be a matchup of the last two teams to change leagues. It would also pit the defending champions against a team that has never won a World Series title, which was the situation the Astros were in last October.