My NFL Picks Week 10: Panthers-Steelers on Thursday highlights a weak slate

Week 10 doesn’t have many good games on the schedule, and the best of the 14 contests looks to be the Thursday nighter, which has the Panthers visiting the Steelers in a battle of two potential playoff teams. Other games to watch for this week include the Saints visiting the Bengals and the Cowboys at the Eagles in an NFC East showdown on Sunday night. The rest of the games either involve two bad teams or don’t look to be competitive with a good team against a mediocre team. I went 9-4 last week, giving me an overall record of 68-76 for the season. As always, I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red

Byes: Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Vikings

Thursday Night Football

Panthers at Steelers (-4.5) – The Panthers are coming into their own on offense, as TE Greg Olsen is getting healthier every week and appears to be playing at the top of his game at this point. Combined with QB Cam Newton and RB Christian McCaffrey, they can put points on the board. The Steelers also have a good offense. RB James Conner continues to start with RB Le’Veon Bell still not with the team, and WR Antonio Brown continues to be one of the best pass catchers in the league. This should be a high-scoring game. I think the Panthers are the better team and will win the game outright, so if they’re getting points I’m taking them.

Sunday 1PM games

Falcons at Browns (+4.5) – The Browns started the season decently, but they seem to be regressing as the year goes on. In their first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams, the Browns got RB Duke Johnson more involved in the action along with rookie RB Nick Chubb, but the offense still isn’t great. The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off a 38-point performance against the Redskins in what was their third straight win, and QB Matt Ryan threw a touchdown pass to WR Julio Jones for the first time this season. WR Calvin Ridley also remains heavily involved in the offense. Atlanta’s defense leaves something to be desired, but I don’t think the Browns will be able to take advantage of it. Falcons win and cover.

Bills at Jets 
(-7.5) – Neither of these offenses was very good last week, as Bills QB Nathan Peterman continues to struggle and Jets QB Sam Darnold threw four interceptions against the Dolphins, including a pick-six that was the only touchdown of the game for either team. Darnold will miss this game with a foot injury, meaning veteran QB Josh McCown will see his first game action of the season. This will likely be a sloppy game with not many points scored. Neither of these teams has scored more than 10 points in either of their last two games, which is why I think a 7.5-point spread is a lot for this game. Even though the Bills likely won’t score a lot, the Jets probably won’t either. Because of that, I’m going to take the points even though I think the Jets win a bad game.

Lions at Bears (-6.5) – The Lions are looking tot avoid a three-game losing streak, but it won’t be easy on the road against a tough Bears defense. The Lions’ offense didn’t excel last week in their first game after trading WR Golden Tate, while the Bears thrashed the Bills 41-9. The Bears did lose G Kyle Long to IR with a foot injury, which hurts the defense but I don’t think it’ll be enough to allow the Lions to score a lot of points. I think the Bears win by at least a touchdown to cover the spread.

Saints at Bengals (+4.5) – The Saints are coming off a convincing win against the previously undefeated Rams, but now they head out on the road to face a 5-3 Bengals team that will be without injured WR A.J. Green, meaning guys like WRs Tyler Boyd and John Ross will have to pick up some of the slack in the receiving game and RB Joe Mixon will also need to take on a bigger piece of the workload on offense. QB Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense are likely going to be involved in a shootout with Saints QB Drew Brees and his top receiver Michael Thomas, who set a franchise record with 211 receiving yards on 12 catches Sunday, for his third game this season with at least 100 receiving yards. The Saints added to the offense this week, signing free agent WR Dez Bryant, but it is unlikely he will play this week after having limited practice with the team; if he does suit up, he will probably be limited and not see many snaps, so he shouldn’t have much of an effect on the game. Still, I think the Saints offense is too good for the Bengals to keep up so even though it’s an outdoor game on the road — a situation Brees sometimes struggles in — I think the Saints cover.

Patriots at Titans (+7.5) – TE Rob Gronkowski and RB Sony Michel missed the Patriots’ game against the Packers on Sunday night, but they still won the game. Michel looks like he’s on track to the return to the field this week, but there is more uncertainty surrounding Gronk. The Titans are coming off a win against the Cowboys on Monday night in which they had a couple of early turnovers before settling into a groove with QB Marcus Mariota eventually accounting for three touchdowns, two passing and one rushing. Monday night’s win ended a three-game skid for the Titans, but I think they’ll start another losing streak because I don’t see Mariota keeping up with Patriots QB Tom Brady. Patriots win the game and barely cover.

Jaguars at Colts (-2.5) – This is an important game for both of these teams — each currently at 3-5 — as they look to stay alive in the AFC South race. The Jaguars have lost four in a row, but they should get RB Leonard Fournette back in the backfield after he has missed the last several games with a hamstring injury, but the defense hasn’t been living up to expectations and QB Blake Bortles isn’t very good. The Colts have the better offensive attack with QB Andrew Luck, but their defense is inferior to Jacksonville’s. In this case, I’m going with the better defense. I’ll take the points. 

Cardinals at Chiefs (-16.5) – This is one of the biggest spreads you will ever see in an NFL game, and there is a huge discrepancy in the offenses of these two teams. The Cardinals cut veteran QB Sam Bradford this week, leaving rookie QB Josh Rosen as the unquestioned starter. QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Kareem Hunt and WR Tyreek Hill can put a lot of points on the scoreboard for the Chiefs, but the Cardinals have a couple playmakers of their own with veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald and RB David Johnson, so I think they can stay within the 16.5 points. The Chiefs will easily win the game, but I’ll go with the Cardinals here.

Redskins at Buccaneers (-2.5) – The Redskins didn’t look great in their Week 9 loss to the Falcons, and they lost a couple of their offensive linemen to injuries that will hurt the offense, particularly with veteran RB Adrian Peterson. But the Buccaneers don’t have the same level of offense as the Falcons, so Washington won’t need to score as much this week to have a chance to win. I think the Redskins could win the game, so I’m taking the points on the road.

Sunday 4PM games

Chargers at Raiders (+9.5) – The Raiders looked terrible last Thursday, losing 34-3 to a 49ers team that played QB Nick Mullens in his first career start. Now they’re facing a better Chargers team led by veteran QB Philip Rivers and WR Keenan Allen. The Chargers will be able to score on the Raiders’ defense, so I think they can win by double digits and I’m giving the points.

Dolphins at Packers (-9.5) – QB Brock Osweiler is making his fifth consecutive start for the Dolphins, who won the low-scoring game against the Jets last week. This week, they are going against a much better offense in the Packers. They placed WR Geronimo Allison on IR, but WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had three catches for 101 yards last week, will look to take up much of the hole his absence will leave in the offense. Some of Green Bay’s defenders, including LB Blake Martinez, may miss this week’s game with injuries they suffered in Week 9. That could help the Dolphins get an ettra score or two. I expect the Packers to win the game, but I’ll give the points.

Seahawks at Rams (-9.5) – The Rams suffered their first loss of the season last week against the Saints, so they’re looking to get back to their winning ways against the division-rival Seahawks, who are .500 and looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. RB Mike Davis is taking over as the lead back for the Seahawks, but he isn’t in the same league as Rams RB Todd Gurley, who is just one of many weapons they have on offense. Rams win the game, but the Seahawks should stay within 10 points to cover the spread.

Sunday Night Football

Cowboys at Eagles (-6.5) – The Eagles had a Week 9 bye, while the Cowboys are coming off a short week after losing to the Titans on Monday night. Philadelphia is playing its first game since acquiring WR Golden Tate in a trade with the Lions before the trade deadline. That gives QB Carson Wentz another pass-catcher he can throw to, in addition to TE Zach Ertz and WR Alshon Jeffery. The Cowboys have struggled to score since putting up 40 against the Jaguars a few weeks ago. Eagles win and cover.

Monday Night Football

Giants at 49ers (-2.5) – It’s a 1-7 team taking on a 2-7 team to end the week’s action. The Giants are coming off their bye, while the 49ers have extra rest after their convincing win over the Raiders last Thursday night. Mullens will get his second career start for the 49ers after his impressive debut outing in Week 9. He has a good chance to outperform veteran Giants QB Eli Manning, and if the Giants are to win the game it will likely be due to a good performance from RB Saquon Barkley. I don’t expect that to happen. Give me the 49ers at home.

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1 thought on “My NFL Picks Week 10: Panthers-Steelers on Thursday highlights a weak slate

  1. Pingback: My NFL Picks Week 11: Chiefs visit Rams in potential Super Bowl preview | Thoughts From Scott

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