Tag Archives: Cardinals

4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Over/under and playoff picks

Now that we’ve previewed the 2018 season for all 30 MLB teams, let’s take a look at how the season is going to play out. In this post, I’ll be analyzing Vegas over/under totals for each team and make my playoff picks.

NL East

Atlanta Braves: 74.5
The Braves have some young prospects with potential — including OF Ronald Acuna, who is starting the season in the minors. If they can play well this season, the Braves should be able to get to 75 wins, which is only three more than last season. I’ll go Over.

Miami Marlins: 64.5
The Marlins had a fire sale this winter, getting rid of all of their stars save for C J.T. Realmuto, and I think he’ll be dealt at the trade deadline. They should be the worst team in the majors this season. Under.

New York Mets: 81
Last year, I said the health of the starting pitchers is key to how successful the Mets will be this season. The same applies for this year. They have to be healthier than they were last season, so I think the Mets can barely go Over the 81.

Philadelphia Phillies: 75.5
The Phillies won 66 games last season and I think they’ll be better this year after adding guys like 1B Carlos Santana and SP Jake Arrieta to a roster with young guys like 2B Scott Kingery and SS J.P. Crawford, but I don’t think they’ll see 10 games worth of improvement. It’ll be close, but I’ll go Under.

Washington Nationals: 92.5
The Nationals are the best team in the division with SPs Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg on the mound and OF Bryce Harper providing power in the middle of the lineup. They won 97 games last season so I think they could be around 95 this season. Over.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: 73
It won’t be an easy road for the Orioles, who have to face the Yankees and Red Sox nearly 40 times this season. I expect them to win around 70 games, so I’ll go Under.

Boston Red Sox: 91.5
Adding J.D. Martinez this weekend will provide the Red Sox with much-needed power, which should help them stay above 90 wins this season after winning 93 in 2017. I’ll go Over.

New York Yankees: 94.5
Adding OF Giancarlo Stanton to a team that already includes OF Aaron Judge gives the Yankees a duo that could hit 100 home runs between them. Stanton’s health is a concern, though, as last season was us the second time in his career he’s played at least 150 games. I don’t think he’ll get there this year, so I’m going to go slightly Under.

Tampa Bay Rays: 77.5
The Rays won 80 games last year and I think they’ll do worse than that this season. I think who they trade — or don’t — at the deadline could be key to how well they do this season, but I think SP Chris Archer will be dealt. If he is, I think they end up Under 77.5 wins.

Toronto Blue Jays: 81
The Blue Jays aren’t the worst team in the division, but I also don’t think they’re a .500 team. They won 76 games in 2017 and I don’t think they’re five games better this season, so this is a relatively easy Under for me.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs: 94.5
NInety-five wins is a lot for a Cubs team that lost Arrieta and replaced him with SP Yu Darvish, who I think is past his prime and will ultimately be a disappointment with his new team. Overall, I think the starting rotation is worse than last year, so I don’t think the Cubs get to 95 wins. They could get to 90, but that would still be Under.

Cincinnati Reds: 73.5
I think the Reds will be hard-pressed to get to 70 wins after winning 68 a year ago. Other than 1B Joey Votto, they don’t have many stars on the team. It’s going to be Under for them.

Milwaukee Brewers: 84.5
The Brewers were one of the most-improved teams this offseason, trading for or signing OFs Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They won 86 games last season and I don’t think they’ll win fewer than that this year, so this is Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 73
The Pirates traded SP Gerrit Cole and OF Andrew McCutchen this winter and got mainly prospects back in return, which doesn’t bode well for their results this season. I’m not sure they get to 70 wins this season, let alone 73 so I’m going Under.

St. Louis Cardinals: 85.5
Like the Brewers, the Cardinals improved their team this offseason, adding OF Marcell Ozuna, who should hit more than 30 home runs again this season to provide more pop for an offense that already includes SS Paul DeJong, who had 25 home runs last year. I’m going Over for the Cardinals.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox: 68
The White Sox don’t have much upside this season. I don’t think they’ll lose 100 games, but I think their loss total will be in the 90s, so their win total could be close to 68 but I’m going to go with what I think is the safer pick and go Under.

Cleveland Indians: 94.5
The Indians won 102 games last season, but I don’t think they break 100 again in 2018., They won more than 20 straight games last year, which I think helped inflate their win total. But they’re in a division with four teams that aren’t very good, so I think they can get up to 95 victories. Over.

Detroit Tigers: 68.5
The Tigers won 64 games last year, when they had SP Justin Verlander for most of the season. Without him on the roster in 2018, I don’t see how they beat that total. They could lose 100 games this year, so it’s Under.

Kansas City Royals: 71.5
The Royals lost 1B Eric Hosmer and OF Lorenzo Cain in free agency this winter, which will hurt them at the plate and cause them to fall from their 80-win total a year ago, but 71 wins may be dropping them a little too far. I think they’ll finish with about 75 or so wins, so I’m going Over 71.5.

Minnesota Twins: 82.5
I think the Twins won more games last year than they should have given their talent. They’ll be starting this season with SP Ervin Santana on the DL and SS Jorge Polanco serving an 80-game PED suspension, so they won’t match last year’s 85 wins. But I think they can get 83 or 84 so it doesn’t give me much margin for error, but I’m taking the Over.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: 85.5
The Diamondbacks have a good offense led by 1B Paul Goldschmidt and their pitching can be good if SP Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray continue to pitch well, like they did in 2017. I think the Diamondbacks go Over 85.5.

Colorado Rockies: 82
The Rockies won 87 games last season, but I think they’ll be worse than that this year. They’ll still be better than .500 and I think they could win 84 or 85 games, so I’ll go Over.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 96.5
The Dodgers will be without injured 3B Justin Turner to start the season, which will hurt them early on. They did trade for OF Matt Kemp, who could make up for some of Turner’s lost production. Other teams in the division got better this winter, so the Dodgers probably won’t lead the majors in wins like they did last season, with 104. They should stay above 90, though, and it’ll be close but I’m going Over 96.5. They could hit the 97-win mark.

San Diego Padres: 69.5
For the second straight winter, the Padres spent money to sign a free-agent bat, this time with Hosmer. He’ll help the offense put runs on the board, along with OF Wil Myers, who moves off of first base to make room for Hosmer defensively. The Padres had 71 wins last season, and I think they’ll have at least that many this year so I’m going Over 69.5.

San Francisco Giants: 81.5
The Giants improved their offense this season, trading for McCutchen and 3B Evan Longoria. Their starting rotation took a hit in spring training, though, with SPs Jeff Samardzija and Madison Bumgarner both suffering injuries that will keep them sidelined for a significant length of time. Those injuries will tamper expectations, but I still think they can surpass .500 this year, so I’ll go Over.

AL West

Houston Astros: 96.5
The Astros won 101 games last season and this year have Verlander or the entire season, in addition to Cole, who they acquired from the Pirates. With the offense they have — headlined by 2B Jose Altuve, SS Carlos Correa, 3B Alex Bregman and OF George Springer — and their pitching, the Astros should surpass 100 wins again this season. I’m going Over.

Los Angeles Angels: 84.5
The Angels made one of the biggest signings of the offseason with SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, but he has struggled this spring so he may not do as well as the Angels had hoped he would. I still think they can get to 85 wins behind the bat of OF Mike Trout,so I’ll go Over.

Oakland Athletics: 74.5
The A’s won 75 games last year and I think they may be a little better this season after acquiring OF Stephen PIscotty. I think they can barely get Over 74.5 wins.

Seattle Mariners: 81.5
I think the Mariners are around a .500 team. They won 78 games last year and I think they’ll end up within a couple games of that total this season, so I’m going to go Under 81.5, but it could be close.

Texas Rangers: 77.5
The Rangers are clearly the worst team in the division and I don’t think they’ll come close to the 78 wins they earned last season. I think this is an easy Under pick.

World Series - Houston Astros v Los Angeles Dodgers - Game Seven

Playoff Picks

National League

NL East Champs: Washington Nationals
NL Central Champs: Chicago Cubs
NL West Champs: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals

American League

AL East Champs: Boston Red Sox
AL Central Champs: Cleveland Indians
AL West Champs: Houston Astros
AL Wild Cards: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels

World Series: Astros over Brewers in 6 games

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My NFL Picks Week 17: Playoff spots up for grabs, Browns look to avoid 0-16 (Updated)

It’s the final week of the 2017 NFL regular season, which means some teams are still battling for the final playoff spots, others are just playing out meaningless games, and the Browns are trying to avoid becoming just the second team in league history to go 0-16. Seven of the eight division titles have been wrapped up — only the NFC South remains in contention, along with both AFC wild cards and one wild card in the NFC. The teams that have not clinched a spot in the postseason but remain in the hunt are the Titans, Ravens, Chargers and Bills in the AFC and the Falcons and Seahawks vying for the final NFC berth.

As usual in Week 17, some teams with nothing to play for will either not play their key players or only play them for part of the game. The Chiefs have already announced QB Alex Smith will sit out and rookie QB Patrick Mahomes will make his first career start, and the Rams have said a number of starters, including QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley, will not play in their season finale. That makes picking games more difficult than usual this week, especially with teams like the Jaguars who are looked into their playoff seed but claim they’re still going to play to win this week. I went 6-10 last week, giving me an overall record of 123-117 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red

Sunday 1PM games

Bears at Vikings (-12.5) – The Vikings, who are coming off a shutout of the Packers, are currently the NFC’s No. 2 seed, but could fall out of that spot — and the accompanying first-round bye — this week, so they’ll likely play their starters this week. But I think the spread could be a bit much because the Bears have a pretty good defense. I’ll take the points.

Browns at Steelers (-14.5) The 0-15 Browns need to beat the Steelers to avoid joining the 2008 Lions as the only 0-16 teams in NFL history. I don’t think that’s going to happen, it’s just a question of how much the Steelers win by. The Steelers are locked into the No. 2 seed but could still move up to No. 1 and get home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win and a Patriots loss. If the Patriots get a big lead on the Jets and look like they’re on pace to win by halftime, the Steelers could pull their starters in the second half, which would limit their scoring potential so I’m going to take the points.
(Update: There are reports that OL Marcus Gilbert has said that QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Le’Veon Bell will not play in the game. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t change my pick of taking the points with Cleveland.)

Cowboys at Eagles (+2.5) – The Eagles locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC when they beat the Raiders Monday night, which means they’ll probably put their backups in at some point during the game — if the likes of QB Nick Foles and RB Jay Ajayi play at all. The offense didn’t even look good on Monday with them playing, so I think the Cowboys have a pretty good chance to win the game. I’ll give the points.

Packers at Lions (-7.5)The Packers couldn’t score last week against the Vikings. The Lions defense isn’t as good but Packers QB Brett Hundley isn’t good. The Lions lost to the Bengals last week, but they should be able to beat the Packers and I’ll give the points.

Texans at Colts (-3.5) – Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons but the Texans have the best offensive player in the game with WR DeAndre Hopkins, so I’ll take the points. (Update: There are reports that Hopkins is not expected to play, but even if he sits I still think the Texans will be able to stay within a field goal, if not win outright, so I’ll keep my original pick.)

Jets at Patriots (-15.5) The Patriots need to win this game so clinch the top seed in the AFC, which they should do. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sit some of their starters late in the game, so I’ll take the points.

Redskins at Giants (+3.5) The Redskins and Giants have both been plagued by injuries this season but the Redskins seem to be handling it better. The Giants were shut out by the Cardinals last week and I don’t see them keeping this game very close. The most notable aspect of the game for the Giants is the possibility that it will be Eli Manning’s last start with the team. I’ll go with the Redskins.

Sunday 4PM games

Panthers at Falcons (-3.5) – The Panthers have already punched their ticket to the postseason and have a chance at winning the NFC South with a win and a Saints loss. They also have a shot at the No. 2 seed with a win and help. The Falcons are currently the No. 6 seed with a wild card but need to win to hold off the Seahawks, who would overtake them with a win if the Falcons lose. That means both teams are playing for something, but it’s more critical for the Falcons to get a victory. They’re at home, but I think the Panthers are the better team. I’ll take the points.

Bills at Dolphins (+2.5) – The Bills are on the outside looking in for their first playoff berth since 1999. They need a win and a Ravens loss, or other help, to get into the postseason. They’re facing a relatively easy game against the Dolphins and I think they should be able to win by about a touchdown, so I’ll give the points on the road.

Bengals at Ravens (-9.5) – The Ravens are currently the fifth seed and just need to win to clinch a spot in the playoffs. If they lose, losses by Bills or Titans would also get them in. They shouldn’t need that help, though, as I think they beat the Bengals, but I don’t think they’ll win by double digits so I’m giving the points.

Chiefs at Broncos (-3.5)- With the news that the Chiefs, who are the AFC West champions and locked in as the No. 4 seed, starting Mahomes at quarterback, you have to wonder how much their other stars — such as RB Kareem Hunt, WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce — will play in the last game of the regular season. That gives the Broncos a better chance to win the game, but I’m still not sure they’ll be able to do it. If they do win, it probably won’t be a big margin of victory so I’ll take the points with the playoff-bound squad.

Jaguars at Titans (-5.5) – The Jaguars continue to say they’ll play to win on Sunday despite  being locked into the third seed, but given the line the oddsmakers aren’t believing them. I believe the jags will play their starters for at least the first half, which I think would be enough to win the game. Give me the points.

Raiders at Chargers (-7.5)The Chargers need a win (or tie) and help to sneak into the playoffs, and they’re playing a Raiders team with nothing to play for that didn’t have much offense on Monday night. One concern for the Chargers is the availability of RB Melvin Gordon, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday but says he’s ready to go this week. I think the Chargers win and it probably won’t be that close.

49ers at Rams (-3.5) – The Rams can’t improve their playoff positioning beyond their current No. 3 seed and have already said that Goff, Gurley and DT Aaron Donald are among their starters who will sit for the finale, so they are clearly treating it as a preseason-type game. With the way the 49ers have played since installing Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback, and with QB Sean Mannion getting the start for the Rams, I expect the 49ers to give the Rams outright so I’m taking the points.

Saints at Buccaneers (+7.5) – The Saints simply need  a win (or Panthers loss) to clinch the division title, and I expect them to get it easily. I’ll give the points.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-8.5) The Seahawks need a win (or tie), combined with a Falcons loss, to earn a playoff spot. I think both of these will happen, and I don’t expect the Cardinals-Seahawks game to be that close so I’ll give the points.

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My NFL Picks Week 16: Zeke returns, Falcons-Saints battle in the NFC South

The penultimate week of the regular season in the NFL has an underwhelming slate of games after last week’s schedule had a number of featured matchups. The best game of the week looks to be the NFC South battle between the Falcons and Saints, as the visiting team is a game out of first place in the division. The Cowboys are among the teams looking to win to stay alive with their slim playoff hopes, and they get RB Ezekiel Elliott back after he has finished serving his six-game suspension. There’s an unusual schedule this week with the Christmas holiday. There’s no Thursday game and there are doubleheaders on both Saturday and Monday, with no Sunday night game due to Christmas Eve. I went 7-9 last week, giving me an overall record of 117-107 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red

Saturday games

Colts at Ravens (-13.5) – This is a surprisingly large spread for a Ravens team that doesn’t have a great offense. They did win by more than I thought last week against the Browns, but the Colts aren’t the Browns. I have a hard time picking a Joe Flacco-led offense to win by two touchdowns, so I’ll take the Colts and the points, but I expect the Ravens to win the game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Vikings at Packers (+6.5) The Falcons’ win on Monday Night Football eliminated the Packers from playoff contention, and with that the team decided to shut QB Aaron Rodgers down for the season and placed him on IR. That means QB Brett Hundley is back as the starter for the last two games of the season. With that in mind, the Packers probably won’t score many points against a good Vikings defense. At 11-3, the Vikings are battling for the top seed in the NFC, and they should beat their division rivals to stay alive in that race. I’ll give the points on the road.

Sunday 1PM games

Falcons at Saints (-5.5) – The Falcons need to win this game to try to stay alive in the race for the NFC South as they currently sit a game behind both the Saints and Panthers, who are tied for the division lead. I don’t think the Falcons will be able to keep up with the Saints’ offense, led by QB Drew Brees and RBs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, enough to win the game. I do think they’ll keep it close, though, so I’ll take the points but the Saints win the game.

Bills at Patriots (-12.5)The Patriots hold the top seed in the AFC after the thrilling win against the Steelers on Sunday. Now they hit the road for a divisional game against the Bills, who are desperate for a win as they try to hold on to the No. 6 seed in the conference. I don’t think the game will be a blowout, but the it’s hard to go against the Tom BradyRob Gronkowski combo on the Pats. Bills QB Tyrod Taylor isn’t good enough, so it’ll have to be RB LeSean McCoy to lead the way, and I don’t think that’ll be enough to pull off the upset. Patriots win, but I’m taking the points again.

Browns at Bears (-6.5)The Browns have just two more chances to avoid becoming the second team in NFL history to finish a season 0-16. With the Steelers looming in Week 17, this could be the Browns’ last realistic chance to get a win. I don’t like their chances, though. Rookie QB DeShone Kizer doesn’t look like he’s getting better as the season progresses. I think the Bears will win and cover, though I’m not confident about that part.

Lions at Bengals (+4.5) It seems like the Bengals have given up on the season, coming off of back-to-back losses of 33-7 and 34-7. I’m expecting another blowout here and am surprised the spread is as low as it is. I think the Lions win by double digits.

Broncos at Redskins (-3.5) Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons, but the Broncos have been the worse of the two. Their defense has not been good lately and they don’t seem to know yet who will start at quarterback this week, Brock Osweiler or Paxton Lynch. I’ll go with Kirk Cousins and the Redskins.

Rams at Titans (+6.5) – The Rams are coming off of a blowout win against the Seahawks, and I don’t think the Titans are much better than the Seahawks so I don’t know why this game would be much different. Titans QB Marcus Mariota may be the most disappointing player in the league this season. I expect Rams RB Todd Gurley to have another big game like he did last week. Rams win big.

Dolphins at Chiefs (-10.5) – The Chiefs seem to be back to playing the way they were early in the season when they were 5-0, as opposed to how they played during their midseason swoon. Facing a Dolphins team led by QB Jay Cutler, I don’t think this game will be that close, and WR Tyreek Hill and RB Kareem Hunt will lead the way for the Chiefs as they look to potentially wrap up the AFC West this week.

Chargers at Jets (+6.5) – The Chargers are on the fringe of playoff contention but need significant help to get over the edge. Bryce Petty is the Jets’ starting quarterback, which is why I’m taking PHilip Rivers and the Chargers to do their part and win the game — and cover — but I don’t think they’ll still be alive for the postseason by the end of the weekend.

Buccaneers at Panthers (-9.5)- Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston had his best game in a while on Monday, dropping a close one to the Falcons. I think Winston and WR Mike Evans can keep it close again this week when they take on the Panthers, but I think the Panthers win. TE Greg Olsen looked like himself in Week 15 as he continues to work his way back from injury, which gives QB Cam Newton another offensive weapon. Panthers win, but the Bucs cover.

Sunday 4PM games

Jaguars at 49ers (+4.5) – QB Jimmy Garoppolo has played well in the games he’s played for the 49ers this season, but he faces perhaps his biggest test yet against the Jaguars, who have one of the best defenses in the league. Last week, the Jaguars clinched their first playoff berth in a decade, but they still have something to play for because they can earn a first-round bye if things go in their favor. RB Leonard Fournette looks like he will play after missing last week’s game. I’m going with the Jags.

Seahawks at Cowboys (-4.5)The Seahawks are coming off a bad loss to the Rams, while the Cowboys held on to beat the Raiders last week and now get Elliott back from his suspension as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. With Elliott, who could get a heavy workload, back I think the Cowboys will win this one fairly easily. I’ll give the points.

Giants at Cardinals (-4.5) – The Giants offense came alive last week, with QB Eli Manning throwing for more than 400 yards, while Blaine Gabbert had a forgettable game for the Cardinals and is being replaced by Drew Stanton this week. Overall, neither team has been good this season so I’ll go with their most recent performances and take the points, though I think the Cardinals could eke out the win at home.

Christmas games

Steelers at Texans (+9.5)The Steelers will be without WR Antonio Brown this week after he injured his calf in the team’s nailbiter against the Patriots on Sunday. That could be a blow to the offense if WRs Martavis Bryant and JuJu Smith-Schuster can’t make up for Brown’s lost production. It could also lead the team to lean more on RB Le’Veon Bell than if Brown was healthy. I expect the Steelers to win the game, but I think the spread may be too high since the Steelers tend to play down to their competition when they’re facing an inferior team. Give me the points. 

Raiders at Eagles (-8.5) – Eagles QB Nick Foles played well in his first game starting in place of Carson Wentz on Sunday, but I need to see him do it again before I truly buy into him being able to play like that again. I’m going to go with the Raiders to cover, but the Eagles should win the game.

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My NFL Picks Week 15: Rodgers returns, Patriots battle Steelers for AFC supremacy

The game of the week looks to be the Patriots visiting the Steelers in the late afternoon slot on Sunday. They are probably the two best teams in the AFC, and the Patriots are going to be looking to bounce back from the loss they suffered against the Dolphins on Monday night.  Other games of note on the Week 15 slate include the Rams heading to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in a game for first in the NFC West and the Cowboys visiting the Raiders on Sunday night as those teams look to hold on to their slim playoff hopes. We also get our first Saturday games of the season, with a doubleheader. I went 6-10 last week, giving me an overall record of 110-98 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red

Thursday Night Football

Broncos at Colts (+2.5) – The week begins with the Peyton Bowl, as Peyton Manning‘s former teams play each other. Neither quarterback in the game — Trevor Siemian for the Broncos and the Colts’ Jacoby Brissett — is in the same class as Manning. I trust the Broncos’ offense more than the Colts’, so I’ll give the points to start the week.

Saturday games

Bears at Lions (-5.5) – The Bears are coming off what was probably their best game of the season last week, a 33-7 victory against the Bengals, but you can’t expect that kind of offense out of QB Mitch Trubisky every week. Obviously the Lions have the better pass-thrower in Matthew Stafford, but they’ve had some issues in the run game, with RB Ameer Abdullah having missed the last two games. The Bears have a decent defense, which I think will be able to keep it a close game. I think the Lions win,but I’m taking the points with the Bears.

Chargers at Chiefs (+1.5) – First place in the AFC West is on the line as these 7-6 teams meet. The Chiefs finally won a game last week after an extended losing streak while the Chargers are on a four-game winning streak. Part of the reason for the Chiefs’ win last week was rookie RB Kareem Hunt having his best game in several weeks, and he’ll likely need a repeat performance this week because QB Alex Smith can’t be trusted right now. I think Chargers QB Philip Rivers will do well enough to get his team the win.

Sunday 1PM games

Dolphins at Bills (-2.5) – There is a question about who will draw the start at quarterback for the Bills this week, with it looking like it could be Joe Webb. If that’s the case, it would hurt the BIlls’ chances of beating a Dolphins team coming off a win over the Patriots. I think Dolphins QB Jay Cutler is better than whoever is going to start for the Bills, and RB Kenyan Drake is looking like a viable starter for Miami, so I’ll take the points with the visitors.

Bengals at Vikings (-10.5)The Bengals were on the short end of a blowout loss against the Bears last week and face a tougher test this week against the Vikings, who lost to the Panthers on Sunday. I don’t like giving more than 10 points, but the Bengals look like they may have given up on the rest of the season, so I’ll give the points.

Ravens at Browns (+7.5)The Browns had their best chance yet last week to pick up their first win of the season. They were leading the Packers most of the way but ultimately lost in overtime. I don’t think they’ll have such a lengthy lead in this game, but I think they’ll keep it close because I don’t like the Ravens’ offense that much. The Browns likely drop to 0-14 this week, but I’ll take the points.

Packers at Panthers (+0.5) This could be an interesting game for the Packers as QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to action after missing the last several games with a collarbone injury. If he plays, I think the Packers win. If it’s Brett Hundley under center for some reason, I would expect the Panthers to win.

Jets at Saints (-15.5) – After QB Josh McCown suffered a season-ending wrist injury on Sunday, the Jets are expected to start Bryce Petty, which is likely one reason why there’s such a big spread on this game. The Saints should win easily, but I’m taking the points. I think the Jets can stay within two touchdowns.

Eagles at Giants (+7.5)The Eagles also suffered a season-ending injury at quarterback on Sunday when MVP candidate Carson Wentz tore his ACL. That leaves QB Nick Foles as the starter heading into hostile territory on the road against the Giants. QB Eli Manning started again last week, but he didn’t look good. But who knows how Foles will perform in his first start of the season. I still think the Eagles win the game, but I’ll take the points.

Cardinals at Redskins (-4.5) Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons and neither offense has been great this week, but Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is better than Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert, which I think will be the difference in the game. I’ll go with the Redskins.

Texans at Jaguars (-11.5)QB T.J. Yates will start for the Texans after Tom Savage suffered a concussion in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers. When these teams met in Week 1, the Jaguars won in a blowout — and that was with Deshaun Watson playing in the second half. With Yates under center for the Texans, I don’t think this game will be close. I’ll give the points.

Sunday 4PM games

Rams at Seahawks (-2.5) – First place in the division is on the line in this match, with QB Jared Goff and the Rams facing a Seahawks defense depleted by injuries. I expect this to be a close game, but I think the Rams can pull out the win.

Titans at 49ers (-1.5) – 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has done well in his first two starts with the team, but the team around him still isn’t great. While Titans QB Marcus Mariota has been struggling of late, I think he’ll be able to lead the team to a victory so I’ll take the points.

Patriots at Steelers (+2.5) This seems like the game of the year in the AFC, with the winning squad getting the inside track on the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Patriots are coming off a Monday night loss to the Dolphins, but they’ll have TE Rob Gronkowski back after he was suspended for that game. The Steelers have one of the best offenses in the league, though, with QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell. I’m expecting a pretty high-scoring game, with the home team winning.

Sunday Night Football

Cowboys at Raiders (+2.5) – Both teams are hanging on to playoff contention to a thread and a loss could kill either team’s chances of making it to the postseason. I think the Cowboys, who are slated to get RB Ezekiel Elliott back in Week 16, are the better team of late and should win the game.

Monday Night Football

Falcons at Buccaneers (+6.5) – The Falcons are trying to hold on to the No. 6 seed in the NFC, and a win over the Buccaneers would help them fend off the likes of the Cowboys and Packers. I think Atlanta can beat the disappointing Tampa Bay team so it becomes a question of whether they’ll win by a touchdown or better. I think it’ll be close, but I’m giving the points.

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My NFL Picks Week 14: Eagles face the Rams in a battle of NFC elites

For the second straight week, there are some big games in the NFC playoff picture in Week 14. It starts on Thursday night with the Saints visiting the Falcons, and it continues Sunday with the Eagles looking to bounce back from their loss to the Seahawks to take on the Rams in Los Angeles. Other games of note include the Panthers hosting the Vikings and a Sunday night AFC North matchup between the Ravens and Steelers in Pittsburgh. I went 9-7 last week, giving me an overall record of 104-88 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red

Thursday Night Football

Saints at Falcons (+0.5) – The Saints offense continues to roll with rookie RB Alvin Kamara making his case to earn Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He is providing a boost to future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees. For the Falcons,’WR Julio Jones had a fairly quiet game last week after a strong performance in Week 12. I expect the Saints to win, so I’ll take them in what is essentially a pick ’em.

Sunday 1PM games

Colts at Bills (-3.5) – With QB Tyrod Taylor having suffered an injury last week, Nathan Peterman will be under center for the Bills this week, which didn’t go well last time he started. Given Peterman’s poor performance a few weeks ago, I don’t expect the Bills to score a lot of points so Colts QB Jacoby Brissett should be able to keep his team in the game. The Bills may win the game, but I’m taking the points.

Bears at Bengals (-6.5)The Bengals came close to beating the Steelers on Monday night, but RB Joe Mixon left the game early with an injury and may miss this week’s game with the Bears. That shouldn’t prevent the Bengals from winning the game, however.

Packers at Browns (+3.5) – This could be Brett Hundley‘s last start as the Packers’ quarterback before Aaron Rodgers‘ potential return in Week 15. If this is Hunley’s last game, he has a relatively easy opponent in the 0-12 Browns. Browns WR Josh Gordon had a good performance in his return from his lengthy suspension last week, but he won’t be enough to help the Browns pick up their first win. I’m giving the points.

Cowboys at Giants (+4.5) – The Giants’ soap opera continued this week with the firing of head coach Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese. Eli Manning will return to the starting quarterback role after Geno Smith played last week. For the Cowboys, RB Alfred Morris had a big week last week. If he can follow it up with another 100-yard performance, it’ll help the Cowboys pick up a much-needed win. I’ll take the road team.

Lions at Buccaneers (+3.5) – Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston performed well in his return to the field in Week 13 but he has a tough task ahead of him to keep up with the Lions offense led by QB Matthew Stafford. I think the Lions win the game but the Bucs keep it close so I’ll take the points.

Raiders at Chiefs (-3.5) This is an important game in the AFC West race, particularly for the Chiefs, who have gone 1-6 since their 5-0 start to the season. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has regressed in recent weeks and if the Chiefs fall out of the playoff picture, they may choose to get a look at backup QB Patrick Mahomes. This game could go either way so I’ll take the points with the Raiders, who I’m also picking to win the game outright.

Vikings at Panthers (+2.5) – The Vikings are looking to stay alive in the race for the top seed in the conference as QB Case Keenum leads them into Charlotte to take on the Panthers and QB Cam Newton, who faces a tough test against a Vikings defense that ranks among the best in the NFL. I think the Vikings D will be too much for the Panthers to overcome and the Vikes will pick up their 11th win of the season. I’ll give the points.

49ers at Texans (-2.5)49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo did well in his first start for the team last week and he’ll try to follow that up with another good game against the Texans. He’s going against a better opposing quarterback than last week, though, in Tom Savage, who has improved in recent weeks compared to when he first took over as the starter when Deshaun Watson suffered his season-ending injury several weeks ago. I think the Texans win the game and cover at home.

Sunday 4PM games

Jets at Broncos (+0.5) – The Broncos have lost their last eight games and now face a Jets team that is looking for a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Jets QB Josh McCown has had some good games in the last few weeks and I think he’ll be able to continue that streak this week against a Broncos defense that has regressed of late. I’ll go with the Jets on the road.

Titans at Cardinals (+2.5) – I don’t think the Titans are as good as their 8-4 record would indicate they are, with QB Marcus Mariota having a down year. The Cardinals, however, are beset by injuries that are forcing QB Blaine Gabbert to continue to start and RB Adrian Peterson is expected to miss another game due to injury. The Cardinals offense just isn’t very good as it currently stands, aside from WR Larry Fitzgerald, so I have to go with the Titans.

Redskins at Chargers (-6.5) – The Chargers are trying to keep pace in the three-way race for the AFC West title against a Redskins team that will again be without oft-injured TE Jordan Reed. I think the Chargers win the game, but I think it’ll be relatively close so I’ll go with the Redskins to cover.

Eagles at Rams (-2.5) – The Eagles stayed on the West Coast after last week’s loss to the Seahawks to avoid having to take two cross-country flights this week, which they hope benefits them in this game between two teams hoping to get first-round byes in the NFC playoffs. i think the Eagles are a slightly better team and I trust Carson Wentz a little more than Jared Goff at quarterback, so I think the Eagles will win the game outright. Given that, I’m taking the points on the road.

Seahawks at Jaguars (-2.5) – The Jaguars will have to be at the top of their game to win this game because Jacksonville’s offense can’t match up with the Seahawks. Despite some notable injuries, the Seahawks still have a decent offense that will likely be able to shut down Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, leaving it up to RB Leonard Fournette to lead the offensive attack. I don’t think he’ll be able to do enough to get the win for his team. Seahawks win outright so I’ll take the points again.

Sunday Night Football

Ravens at Steelers (-5.5) – The games in this divisional rivalry are usually close and the Steelers almost lost on Monday night so the Bengals, who aren’t as good as the Ravens, so I expect this game to be decided by about a field goal or so. I’m taking the Ravens, but I think the Steelers win the game.

Monday Night Football

Patriots at Dolphins (+11.5) The Patriots will be without TE Rob Gronkowski on Monday night as he serves a one-game suspension for a late hit in last week’s game, which puts the offense at a disadvantage. QB Tom Brady still has some good targets to throw to, including WR Brandin Cooks, and the Patriots should still win the game even without Gronk. On the road in Miami, though, I think 11.5 is too many points so I’ll take the points with the Dolphins.

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My NFL Picks Week 13: Two of the NFC’s best teams meet when the Eagles visit the Seahawks

There are some big games scheduled for this week in the NFC with playoff contenders playing each other, with the Vikings visiting the Falcons, the Saints hosting the Panthers and the Eagles meeting the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. The week starts, however, with a matchup of disappointing NFC East teams when the Cowboys host the Redskins. I went 7-9 last week, giving me an overall record of 95-81 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red

Thursday Night Football

Redskins at Cowboys (-1.5) – It’s surprising to see the Cowboys favored in this game. They have failed to score more than nine points in each of their last three games, and the Dallas offense has not looked good without RB Ezekiel Elliott, who is in the midst of serving his six-game suspension. Even though it’s a Thursday game, neither team is on a short week because both teams played on Thanksgiving so being on the road midweek shouldn’t be an issue for the Redskins. I expect Washington to win outright, so I’ll take the points.

Sunday 1PM games

Vikings at Falcons (-2.5) – The Vikings take a seven-game win streak into Atlanta to take on the defending NFC champion Falcons, who haven’t been the same team this season. The Vikings offense has performed well behind QB Case Keenum, but the defense has also played a big role in the team’s success this season. On the other side, Falcons WR Julio Jones had his best game of the year, with a 253-yard, two-touchdown performance. The teams are pretty evenly matched, but I think the Vikings may be slightly better so I’ll take the points.

Patriots at Bills (+8.5) – Tyrod Taylor is back at quarterback for the Bills, but that won’t help them much against the Patriots, with QB Tom Brady leading the offense and a strong defense. I expect the Patriots to win big so I’ll take,the road team.

49ers at Bears (-3.5) – The 49ers have announced that QB Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start for the team, which is a difficult task against a pretty good Bears defense. The Bears offense, on the other hand, has struggled this season behind QB Mitch Trubisky. With Garoppolo getting the start for the 49ers, though, I think the Bears will be able to score enough to win and barely cover.

Broncos at Dolphins (-0.5)This is a meeting of two teams who have not done well this season. Dolphins QB Jay Cutler is out of the concussion protocol and is expected to start after Matt Moore played last week. QB Brock Osweiler is expected to draw the start once again for the Broncos, which isn’t necessarily a good thing for them. I’ll give the home team the advantage and go with the Dolphins.

Lions at Ravens (-2.5) – The Ravens beat the Texans on Monday night but face a better offense this week with the LIons and QB Matthew Stafford. I don’t think Ravens QB Joe Flacco will be able to score enough to keep the Ravens in the game so I’ll take the LIons with the points.

Buccaneers at Packers (-2.5) Packers QB Brett Hundley played perhaps his best game of the season last week, barely losing to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. For the Buccaneers, QB Jameis Winston has been named the starter, returning to action after Ryan Fitzpatrick has started in his absence for the last few games. I don’t think the Bucs are very good right now and Winston will probably be rusty and not at 100% so I’ll reluctantly take the Packers at Lambeau.

Texans at Titans (-6.5) – With injuries to QB Deshaun Watson and DE J.J. Watt, the Texans aren’t a great team right now and they’re facing the first-place team in their division this week. Titans QB Marcus Mariota hasn’t been good this year, but he’s still better than his counterpart, Tom Savage, so I expect the Titans to win and I think they can be a touchdown better so I’ll give the points.

Colts at Jaguars (-9.5) – The other two AFC South teams are meeting in this game, with the Jaguars nearly double-digit favorites. After losing to the Cardinals last week, I’m not confident that Blake Bortles and the Jaguars will be able to cover that type of spread despite having one of the best defenses in the league. I’ll go with the Colts.

Chiefs at Jets (+3.5)- The Chiefs have lost three straight and five of their last six after beginning the season 5-0. I think they get back on track against the Jets. The defense should be able to keep the Jets offense from scoring a lot, which means Chiefs QB Alex Smith won’t be much of a handicap for the team if he keeps playing the way he has been of late. Give me the Chiefs on the road.

Sunday 4PM games

Browns at Chargers (-13.5) – It’s Week 13 but the Browns are still looking for their first win of the season. A few weeks ago, I would have thought they could get it against the Chargers, but they have been playing better of late so I’m not so sure the Browns will be able to pull off the win on the road. One thing working in Cleveland’s favor is the fact that they will have WR Josh Gordon for the first time since Week 16 of the 2014 season. With nearly three full years since the last time he played in a regular season NFL game, I’m not sure if Gordon will be able to play at the level he did before he started facing suspensions by the league. I think QB Philip Rivers will lead the Chargers to victory, but I don’t think they can win by two touchdowns to cover the spread so I’ll take the points despite expecting the Browns to fall to 0-12.

Giants at Raiders (-6.5) This will be the first regular season Giants game since Week 10 of the 2004 season to be started by a quarterback other than Eli Manning after the team announced that it will bench the veteran — ending his consecutive starts streak at 210, the second longest in NFL history behind Brett Favre — in favor of Geno Smith, making his first start since Week 7 of last season. The Raiders will be shorthanded on offense, with WR Michael Crabtree suspended for the game and WR Amari Cooper likely missing the game due to injury. If the receivers can’t go, that gives the Giants a better shot to win the game, but I don’t think Smith can be trusted to play well enough to win. I’ll go with the Raiders.

Rams at Cardinals (+6.5) – Both teams are coming off of wins last weekend, but the Rams’ victory over the Saints was more impressive than the Cardinals barely pulling off the upset of the Jaguars. The Rams are clearly the better team and I don’t think the game will be that close. I’ll give the points.

Panthers at Saints (-3.5)It’ll be a tough test for Panthers QB Cam Newton to keep up with the strong Saints offense led by QB Drew Brees and impressive rookie RB Alvin Kamara in this key game in the NFC South race. The Saints are the better overall team and I think they’ll be able to cover.

Sunday Night Football

Eagles at Seahawks (+5.5) – The Eagles, who are among the best teams in the league, head to take on a Seahawks team with a defense that has been depleted by injuries. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson will have to have a tremendous game to be able to keep up with Eagles QB Carson Wentz, and I don’t think he’ll be able to do it.,Go with the Eagles.

Monday Night Football

Steelers at Bengals (+6.5) – The Steelers barely got passed the Packers last week but I don’t think they’ll have such troubles with the Bengals on Monday night. I think Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell are too good and the Bengals offense won’t be able to score enough points to keep the game close, despite last week’s breakout performance by RB Joe Mixon. I’m giving the points on the road.

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My NFL Picks Week 12: Saints-Rams leads a weak Thanksgiving weekend

With byes done for the year, there are full 16-game slates each week the rest of the year. This week features the now-traditional three games on Thanksgiving, including a battle of the top two teams in the NFC North. The game of the week, however, is looking to be Drew Brees leading the Saints to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in a game between two of the top teams in the NFC. Most of the rest of this week’s schedule features either mismatches or games involving two teams that are already out of the playoff hunt. I went 8-6 last week, giving me an overall record of 88-72 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red


Vikings at Lions (+2.5) – The Vikings are coming off an impressive win against the Rams and are looking to maintain their division lead over the Lions, which currently stands at two games. They’re facing a road game on a short week, but I think QB Case Keenum and the Vikings will be able to full up the victory by at least a field goal, so I’ll give the points.

Chargers at Cowboys (-0.5) – The Chargers won’t score more than 50 points again this week because Cowboys QB Dak Prescott won’t throw five interceptions in a half like Bills QB Nathan Peterman did last week. The Cowboys offense, however, hasn’t looked good the last couple of weeks with RB Ezekiel Elliott serving his six-game suspension. Things should be better for the Cowboys on Thursday if OT Tyron Smith can play to help shore up the offensive line. Even if he misses another game, though, I think the Cowboys will have just enough offense to beat the Chargers at home.

Giants at Redskins (-7.5) – The Redskins gave up a lead last week to lose to the Saints, while the Giants secured their second win of the season by beating the Chiefs, who are on the decline, despite needing overtime to score 12 points. Despite those Week 11 results, I expect the Redskins to win this divisional game rather easily with the lowly Giants hitting the road on a short week. I’ll give the 7.5 points.

Sunday 1PM games

Buccaneers at Falcons (-8.5) – The Buccaneers will be without QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game, giving Ryan Fitzpatrick another opportunity to start — which could actually be beneficial for the Bucs. I don’t think they’ll be able to score enough points to beat the Falcons and QB Matt Ryan, but I think Fitzpatrick can keep it relatively close. l’ll take the points but expect the Falcons to win the game.

Bills at Chiefs (-9.5) – Both teams are coming off bad losses, with the Bills having lost by 30 to the Chargers, and the Chiefs losing in overtime to a Giants team that had just one win at the time. As of the time of this writing, the Bills have not yet announced if they’ll give Peterman another start or go back to QB Tyrod Taylor as the starter. They should do the latter as he is clearly the better quarterback and is more likely to keep the Bills in the game. But regardless of who gets the start for Buffalo, I find it hard to give so many points with the Chiefs against any team right now after they scored just nine points a week ago, so I’ll take the points with the Bills.

Bears at Eagles (-13.5) – The Eagles continued to roll last week, with QB Carson Wentz helping them improve to a 9-1 record on the season, and I don’t see the Bears giving them much of a challenge this week. I think 13.5 points is a little too high, though, so I’ll pick the Eagles to win the game but I expect the Bears to keep it within 13.5 points.

Browns at Bengals (-8.5) After losing their first 10 games, the Browns are still looking for their first win and this could be one of their best chances to get it as they take on a mediocre Bengals team. Even against the Browns, I find it hard to envision the Bengals winning by at least a nine-point margin so I’ll take the Browns to cover the spread but they’ll likely fall to 0-11.

Titans at Colts (+3.5) – Both teams have had an extended period of rest coming into this game, with the Titans coming off a Thursday night game last week while the Colts had their bye in Week 11. With those extended periods between games, both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for the game. I think that gives the Titans the advantage since they are the better team. Although QB Marcus Mariota hasn’t had a great season, he’s still better than Colts QB Jacoby Brissett and should be able to lead the team to a win. The spread is only 3.5 points so I think the Titans will be able to cover it.

Dolphins at Patriots (-16.5) – This is one of the biggest spreads you’ll ever see in an NFL game. There is uncertainty about who will start at quarterback for the Dolphins with Jay Cutler in the league’s concussion protocol, opening the possibility for Matt Moore to get the start against a tough Patriots team. The Patriots are certainly going to win the game behind QB Tom Brady, but I don’t like giving so many points so I’ll take the points and hope the Dolphins don’t get completely blown out.

Panthers at Jets – The Jets are just 1-4 in their last five games after starting the season 3-2 and they continue to fall out of the playoff race. i expect that decline to continue this week when they face a Panthers team that is fighting for the lead in the NFC South. QB Cam Newton should lead the road team to a win, and I think it’ll be by at least a touchdown so I’ll give the points.

Sunday 4PM games

Seahawks at 49ers +6.5) – The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss to the Falcons but they should be able to rebound this week against the 49ers. The Seahawks defense is depleted due to injuries, including season-ending maladies for CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue against the 49ers. I think the Seahawks cover.

Broncos at Raiders (-5.5) – The Broncos have announced that QB Paxton Lynch will get the start on Sunday against a Raiders defense that has yet to record an interception this season. Facing a subpar defense may help Lynch have a decent performance, but it probably won’t be enough to win the game. I think the Broncos will keep it relatively close, though, so I’ll take the points.

Saints at Rams (-2.5) – The Saints continued their winning ways last week, coming back to beat the Redskins and extend their winning streak to eight games. The Rams, on the other hand, only scored seven points against a Vikings defense. Rams QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley will have a better chance at success this week against an improved but still not great Saints defense. I don’t think Goff will be able to outplay Brees, however, and I expect the future Hall of Famer to lead New Orleans to a road victory. The Saints are getting points so I’ll take them.

Jaguars at Cardinals (+4.5) – The surprising Jaguars have been leaning on their defense all season to win games, and that will likely continue this week with the Cardinals expected to give QB Blaine Gabbert his second straight start. Neither offense is very good and the Jags defense is the best unit in the game, which I’m expecting to be the difference. I’m giving the points.

Sunday Night Football

Packers at Steelers (-13.5) – The Packers were shut out by the Ravens last week, and with Brett Hundley at quarterback they likely don’t have much of a chance to beat the Steelers at Heinz Field in a primetime contest. Keeping that in mind, 13.5 points is a big spread, especially with the Steelers having a tendency to play down to opponents who aren’t very good. I think the Steelers will win the game by about 10, but I think 13.5 points is a little too many so I’ll take the Packers.

Monday Night Football

Texans at Ravens (-6.5) – Texans QB Tom Savage had his first career two-touchdown game last week and, while he’s not very good, he has some offensive help, notably with WR DeAndre Hopkins, who can help him put some points on the board. The Ravens don’t have a strong offense themselves so I think this will be a pretty close game. I’ll take the points.

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