With byes done for the year, there are full 16-game slates each week the rest of the year. This week features the now-traditional three games on Thanksgiving, including a battle of the top two teams in the NFC North. The game of the week, however, is looking to be Drew Brees leading the Saints to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in a game between two of the top teams in the NFC. Most of the rest of this week’s schedule features either mismatches or games involving two teams that are already out of the playoff hunt. I went 8-6 last week, giving me an overall record of 88-72 for the season. I’m using the lines from ESPN’s Pigskin Pick ‘Em game. My picks are in bold and my survivor pool pick (straight up, not ATS) is in red
Vikings at Lions (+2.5) – The Vikings are coming off an impressive win against the Rams and are looking to maintain their division lead over the Lions, which currently stands at two games. They’re facing a road game on a short week, but I think QB Case Keenum and the Vikings will be able to full up the victory by at least a field goal, so I’ll give the points.
Chargers at Cowboys (-0.5) – The Chargers won’t score more than 50 points again this week because Cowboys QB Dak Prescott won’t throw five interceptions in a half like Bills QB Nathan Peterman did last week. The Cowboys offense, however, hasn’t looked good the last couple of weeks with RB Ezekiel Elliott serving his six-game suspension. Things should be better for the Cowboys on Thursday if OT Tyron Smith can play to help shore up the offensive line. Even if he misses another game, though, I think the Cowboys will have just enough offense to beat the Chargers at home.
Giants at Redskins (-7.5) – The Redskins gave up a lead last week to lose to the Saints, while the Giants secured their second win of the season by beating the Chiefs, who are on the decline, despite needing overtime to score 12 points. Despite those Week 11 results, I expect the Redskins to win this divisional game rather easily with the lowly Giants hitting the road on a short week. I’ll give the 7.5 points.
Sunday 1PM games
Buccaneers at Falcons (-8.5) – The Buccaneers will be without QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game, giving Ryan Fitzpatrick another opportunity to start — which could actually be beneficial for the Bucs. I don’t think they’ll be able to score enough points to beat the Falcons and QB Matt Ryan, but I think Fitzpatrick can keep it relatively close. l’ll take the points but expect the Falcons to win the game.
Bills at Chiefs (-9.5) – Both teams are coming off bad losses, with the Bills having lost by 30 to the Chargers, and the Chiefs losing in overtime to a Giants team that had just one win at the time. As of the time of this writing, the Bills have not yet announced if they’ll give Peterman another start or go back to QB Tyrod Taylor as the starter. They should do the latter as he is clearly the better quarterback and is more likely to keep the Bills in the game. But regardless of who gets the start for Buffalo, I find it hard to give so many points with the Chiefs against any team right now after they scored just nine points a week ago, so I’ll take the points with the Bills.
Bears at Eagles (-13.5) – The Eagles continued to roll last week, with QB Carson Wentz helping them improve to a 9-1 record on the season, and I don’t see the Bears giving them much of a challenge this week. I think 13.5 points is a little too high, though, so I’ll pick the Eagles to win the game but I expect the Bears to keep it within 13.5 points.
Browns at Bengals (-8.5) – After losing their first 10 games, the Browns are still looking for their first win and this could be one of their best chances to get it as they take on a mediocre Bengals team. Even against the Browns, I find it hard to envision the Bengals winning by at least a nine-point margin so I’ll take the Browns to cover the spread but they’ll likely fall to 0-11.
Titans at Colts (+3.5) – Both teams have had an extended period of rest coming into this game, with the Titans coming off a Thursday night game last week while the Colts had their bye in Week 11. With those extended periods between games, both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for the game. I think that gives the Titans the advantage since they are the better team. Although QB Marcus Mariota hasn’t had a great season, he’s still better than Colts QB Jacoby Brissett and should be able to lead the team to a win. The spread is only 3.5 points so I think the Titans will be able to cover it.
Dolphins at Patriots (-16.5) – This is one of the biggest spreads you’ll ever see in an NFL game. There is uncertainty about who will start at quarterback for the Dolphins with Jay Cutler in the league’s concussion protocol, opening the possibility for Matt Moore to get the start against a tough Patriots team. The Patriots are certainly going to win the game behind QB Tom Brady, but I don’t like giving so many points so I’ll take the points and hope the Dolphins don’t get completely blown out.
Panthers at Jets – The Jets are just 1-4 in their last five games after starting the season 3-2 and they continue to fall out of the playoff race. i expect that decline to continue this week when they face a Panthers team that is fighting for the lead in the NFC South. QB Cam Newton should lead the road team to a win, and I think it’ll be by at least a touchdown so I’ll give the points.
Sunday 4PM games
Seahawks at 49ers +6.5) – The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss to the Falcons but they should be able to rebound this week against the 49ers. The Seahawks defense is depleted due to injuries, including season-ending maladies for CB Richard Sherman and S Kam Chancellor, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue against the 49ers. I think the Seahawks cover.
Broncos at Raiders (-5.5) – The Broncos have announced that QB Paxton Lynch will get the start on Sunday against a Raiders defense that has yet to record an interception this season. Facing a subpar defense may help Lynch have a decent performance, but it probably won’t be enough to win the game. I think the Broncos will keep it relatively close, though, so I’ll take the points.
Saints at Rams (-2.5) – The Saints continued their winning ways last week, coming back to beat the Redskins and extend their winning streak to eight games. The Rams, on the other hand, only scored seven points against a Vikings defense. Rams QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley will have a better chance at success this week against an improved but still not great Saints defense. I don’t think Goff will be able to outplay Brees, however, and I expect the future Hall of Famer to lead New Orleans to a road victory. The Saints are getting points so I’ll take them.
Jaguars at Cardinals (+4.5) – The surprising Jaguars have been leaning on their defense all season to win games, and that will likely continue this week with the Cardinals expected to give QB Blaine Gabbert his second straight start. Neither offense is very good and the Jags defense is the best unit in the game, which I’m expecting to be the difference. I’m giving the points.
Sunday Night Football
Packers at Steelers (-13.5) – The Packers were shut out by the Ravens last week, and with Brett Hundley at quarterback they likely don’t have much of a chance to beat the Steelers at Heinz Field in a primetime contest. Keeping that in mind, 13.5 points is a big spread, especially with the Steelers having a tendency to play down to opponents who aren’t very good. I think the Steelers will win the game by about 10, but I think 13.5 points is a little too many so I’ll take the Packers.
Monday Night Football
Texans at Ravens (-6.5) – Texans QB Tom Savage had his first career two-touchdown game last week and, while he’s not very good, he has some offensive help, notably with WR DeAndre Hopkins, who can help him put some points on the board. The Ravens don’t have a strong offense themselves so I think this will be a pretty close game. I’ll take the points.