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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Over/under and playoff picks

Now that we’ve previewed the 2018 season for all 30 MLB teams, let’s take a look at how the season is going to play out. In this post, I’ll be analyzing Vegas over/under totals for each team and make my playoff picks.

NL East

Atlanta Braves: 74.5
The Braves have some young prospects with potential — including OF Ronald Acuna, who is starting the season in the minors. If they can play well this season, the Braves should be able to get to 75 wins, which is only three more than last season. I’ll go Over.

Miami Marlins: 64.5
The Marlins had a fire sale this winter, getting rid of all of their stars save for C J.T. Realmuto, and I think he’ll be dealt at the trade deadline. They should be the worst team in the majors this season. Under.

New York Mets: 81
Last year, I said the health of the starting pitchers is key to how successful the Mets will be this season. The same applies for this year. They have to be healthier than they were last season, so I think the Mets can barely go Over the 81.

Philadelphia Phillies: 75.5
The Phillies won 66 games last season and I think they’ll be better this year after adding guys like 1B Carlos Santana and SP Jake Arrieta to a roster with young guys like 2B Scott Kingery and SS J.P. Crawford, but I don’t think they’ll see 10 games worth of improvement. It’ll be close, but I’ll go Under.

Washington Nationals: 92.5
The Nationals are the best team in the division with SPs Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg on the mound and OF Bryce Harper providing power in the middle of the lineup. They won 97 games last season so I think they could be around 95 this season. Over.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: 73
It won’t be an easy road for the Orioles, who have to face the Yankees and Red Sox nearly 40 times this season. I expect them to win around 70 games, so I’ll go Under.

Boston Red Sox: 91.5
Adding J.D. Martinez this weekend will provide the Red Sox with much-needed power, which should help them stay above 90 wins this season after winning 93 in 2017. I’ll go Over.

New York Yankees: 94.5
Adding OF Giancarlo Stanton to a team that already includes OF Aaron Judge gives the Yankees a duo that could hit 100 home runs between them. Stanton’s health is a concern, though, as last season was us the second time in his career he’s played at least 150 games. I don’t think he’ll get there this year, so I’m going to go slightly Under.

Tampa Bay Rays: 77.5
The Rays won 80 games last year and I think they’ll do worse than that this season. I think who they trade — or don’t — at the deadline could be key to how well they do this season, but I think SP Chris Archer will be dealt. If he is, I think they end up Under 77.5 wins.

Toronto Blue Jays: 81
The Blue Jays aren’t the worst team in the division, but I also don’t think they’re a .500 team. They won 76 games in 2017 and I don’t think they’re five games better this season, so this is a relatively easy Under for me.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs: 94.5
NInety-five wins is a lot for a Cubs team that lost Arrieta and replaced him with SP Yu Darvish, who I think is past his prime and will ultimately be a disappointment with his new team. Overall, I think the starting rotation is worse than last year, so I don’t think the Cubs get to 95 wins. They could get to 90, but that would still be Under.

Cincinnati Reds: 73.5
I think the Reds will be hard-pressed to get to 70 wins after winning 68 a year ago. Other than 1B Joey Votto, they don’t have many stars on the team. It’s going to be Under for them.

Milwaukee Brewers: 84.5
The Brewers were one of the most-improved teams this offseason, trading for or signing OFs Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They won 86 games last season and I don’t think they’ll win fewer than that this year, so this is Over.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 73
The Pirates traded SP Gerrit Cole and OF Andrew McCutchen this winter and got mainly prospects back in return, which doesn’t bode well for their results this season. I’m not sure they get to 70 wins this season, let alone 73 so I’m going Under.

St. Louis Cardinals: 85.5
Like the Brewers, the Cardinals improved their team this offseason, adding OF Marcell Ozuna, who should hit more than 30 home runs again this season to provide more pop for an offense that already includes SS Paul DeJong, who had 25 home runs last year. I’m going Over for the Cardinals.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox: 68
The White Sox don’t have much upside this season. I don’t think they’ll lose 100 games, but I think their loss total will be in the 90s, so their win total could be close to 68 but I’m going to go with what I think is the safer pick and go Under.

Cleveland Indians: 94.5
The Indians won 102 games last season, but I don’t think they break 100 again in 2018., They won more than 20 straight games last year, which I think helped inflate their win total. But they’re in a division with four teams that aren’t very good, so I think they can get up to 95 victories. Over.

Detroit Tigers: 68.5
The Tigers won 64 games last year, when they had SP Justin Verlander for most of the season. Without him on the roster in 2018, I don’t see how they beat that total. They could lose 100 games this year, so it’s Under.

Kansas City Royals: 71.5
The Royals lost 1B Eric Hosmer and OF Lorenzo Cain in free agency this winter, which will hurt them at the plate and cause them to fall from their 80-win total a year ago, but 71 wins may be dropping them a little too far. I think they’ll finish with about 75 or so wins, so I’m going Over 71.5.

Minnesota Twins: 82.5
I think the Twins won more games last year than they should have given their talent. They’ll be starting this season with SP Ervin Santana on the DL and SS Jorge Polanco serving an 80-game PED suspension, so they won’t match last year’s 85 wins. But I think they can get 83 or 84 so it doesn’t give me much margin for error, but I’m taking the Over.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: 85.5
The Diamondbacks have a good offense led by 1B Paul Goldschmidt and their pitching can be good if SP Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray continue to pitch well, like they did in 2017. I think the Diamondbacks go Over 85.5.

Colorado Rockies: 82
The Rockies won 87 games last season, but I think they’ll be worse than that this year. They’ll still be better than .500 and I think they could win 84 or 85 games, so I’ll go Over.

Los Angeles Dodgers: 96.5
The Dodgers will be without injured 3B Justin Turner to start the season, which will hurt them early on. They did trade for OF Matt Kemp, who could make up for some of Turner’s lost production. Other teams in the division got better this winter, so the Dodgers probably won’t lead the majors in wins like they did last season, with 104. They should stay above 90, though, and it’ll be close but I’m going Over 96.5. They could hit the 97-win mark.

San Diego Padres: 69.5
For the second straight winter, the Padres spent money to sign a free-agent bat, this time with Hosmer. He’ll help the offense put runs on the board, along with OF Wil Myers, who moves off of first base to make room for Hosmer defensively. The Padres had 71 wins last season, and I think they’ll have at least that many this year so I’m going Over 69.5.

San Francisco Giants: 81.5
The Giants improved their offense this season, trading for McCutchen and 3B Evan Longoria. Their starting rotation took a hit in spring training, though, with SPs Jeff Samardzija and Madison Bumgarner both suffering injuries that will keep them sidelined for a significant length of time. Those injuries will tamper expectations, but I still think they can surpass .500 this year, so I’ll go Over.

AL West

Houston Astros: 96.5
The Astros won 101 games last season and this year have Verlander or the entire season, in addition to Cole, who they acquired from the Pirates. With the offense they have — headlined by 2B Jose Altuve, SS Carlos Correa, 3B Alex Bregman and OF George Springer — and their pitching, the Astros should surpass 100 wins again this season. I’m going Over.

Los Angeles Angels: 84.5
The Angels made one of the biggest signings of the offseason with SP/DH Shohei Ohtani, but he has struggled this spring so he may not do as well as the Angels had hoped he would. I still think they can get to 85 wins behind the bat of OF Mike Trout,so I’ll go Over.

Oakland Athletics: 74.5
The A’s won 75 games last year and I think they may be a little better this season after acquiring OF Stephen PIscotty. I think they can barely get Over 74.5 wins.

Seattle Mariners: 81.5
I think the Mariners are around a .500 team. They won 78 games last year and I think they’ll end up within a couple games of that total this season, so I’m going to go Under 81.5, but it could be close.

Texas Rangers: 77.5
The Rangers are clearly the worst team in the division and I don’t think they’ll come close to the 78 wins they earned last season. I think this is an easy Under pick.

World Series - Houston Astros v Los Angeles Dodgers - Game Seven

Playoff Picks

National League

NL East Champs: Washington Nationals
NL Central Champs: Chicago Cubs
NL West Champs: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Cards: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals

American League

AL East Champs: Boston Red Sox
AL Central Champs: Cleveland Indians
AL West Champs: Houston Astros
AL Wild Cards: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels

World Series: Astros over Brewers in 6 games

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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Minnesota Twins

The final AL Central team we preview in our monthlong series looking at all 30 MLB teams leading up to the start of the 2018 season is the Minnesota Twins, who came in second place in the division last season.

The Twins were a surprising team last year, winning 85 games and getting an American League Wild Card after losing 103 games in 2016. And they made a number of moves this winter to improve the team, including most recently signing SP Lance Lynn. Earlier in the offseason, they traded for SP Jake Odorizzi and signed DH Logan Morrison and RPs Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney. They also signed SP Michael PIneda to a two-year deal, but that is a signing geared toward 2019 as he will miss most — if not all — of this season as he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he had in July. 1B Joe Mauer returns as the veteran leader in his 15th season with the team.

The Twins hit .260 last season, which placed them in the top 10 in Major League Baseball, but their 206 home runs were middle-of-the-pack, and their .768 OPS was in the top half of the league. 2B Brian Dozier hit .271 with 34 home runs and an .856 OPS. 3B Miguel Sano hit .264 with 28 home runs in 114 games, and OF Eddie Rosario added 27 homers with a .290 average. OF Byron Buxton hit 16 home runs and stole 29 bases. Mauer hit .305 with 7 home runs. OF Max Kepler had 19 long balls. Morrison hit a career-best 38 home runs with the Rays, with a .246 average.

On the mound, the Twins’ 4.59 ERA put them in the bottom half of the league and their 1,166 strikeouts were the second-fewest in the majors. The bullpen recorded 42 games, which was above the league average. SP Ervin Santana posted a 3.28 ERA with 167 strikeouts in 211.1 innings over 33 starts last season. SP Jose Berrios posted a 3.89 ERA in 26 games — 25 starts — and struck out 139 in 145.2 innings, and SP Kyle Gibson struggled with a 5.07 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 158 innings over 29 starts. Odorizzi put up a 4.14 ERA in 28 starts with the Rays; he had 127 strikeouts in 143.1 innings. Lynn posted a respectable 3.43 ERA with the Cardinals, striking out 153 batters in 186.1 innings over 33 starts. Rodney recorded 39 saves with the Diamondbacks last season and put up a 4.23 ERA while striking out 65 in 55.1 innings, and Reed posted a 2.84 ERA with 19 saves for the Mets and Red Sox; he also had 76 strikeouts in 76 innings.

The Twins’ hitting was fine last season, and adding Morrison will provide a boost if he can even come close to the power he showed last season. it’s a largely young offense, which offers room for improvement if they can take their games to the next level. Signing Lynn and trading for Odorizzi provides needed depth in the rotation with Satana sidelined for up to 12 weeks with a finger injury, potentially leaving him out of action until May. Rodney is expected to begin the season as closer, but Reed could step into the ninth-inning role if Rodney struggles.

The Twins added to the team, trying to fill some holes they had last season, but the additions probably aren’t enough for the Twins to overtake the Indians as the best team in the division. They’ll certainly compete again for one of the Wild Cards in the AL, and I think they’ll get it, but if they do I’m not sure they’re good enough for a deep postseason run.

Be sure to check back every day around 12pm Eastern for another team preview, see them all here, and follow me on Twitter for a link to each new post when it’s posted.

Source: http://www.mntwins.comhttp://www.baseball-reference.com

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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Kansas City Royals

The next AL Central team in our monthlong series previewing all 30 MLB teams leading up to the start of the 2018 season is the Kansas City Royals, who came in third place in the division last season.

Since winning the World Series in 2015, the Royals have won 80 and 81 games, respectively, the last two seasons. They’re looking to get back to where they were in that championship year, and perhaps the move they made this winter that will best help them achieve that goal was re-signing 3B Mike Moustakas, who didn’t have the free-agent market that he expected. They also signed OF Jon Jay and 1B Lucas Duda. They traded for SP Jesse Hahn but subsequently placed him on the 60-day DL with a UCL strain, which could lead to Tommy John surgery. Also unavailable for a while will be OF Jorge Bonifacio, who has been suspended 80 games for testing positive for a PED. They lost longtime 1B Eric Hosmer and OF Lorenzo Cain in free agency.

The Royals were in the top half of Major League Baseball with a .259 average last season while their 193 home runs were below the league average; their .731 OPS placed them in the bottom 10 in the league. Moustakas hit a career-high 38 home runs and 85 RBI last season with a .272 average and .835 OPS. 2B Whit Merrifield had an unexpectedly productive year, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 34 bases with a .288 average. OF Alex Gordon had one of the worst seasons of his career, hitting .208 with 9 home runs, and C Salvador Perez added 27 homers with a .268 average in 129 games. Bonifacio hit .255 with 17 home runs in 113 games. Jay hit .296 with the Cubs and Duda hit 30 home runs with the Mets and Rays but hit just .217.

The pitchers posted a 4.61 ERA,which was in the bottom half of the league, as were their 1,216 strikeouts. The bullpen’s 39 saves matched the league average. SP Danny Duffy was the best in the rotation with a 3.81 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 146.1 innings over 24 starts. SP Ian Kennedy posted a 5.38 ERA with 131 strikeouts in 154 innings, and SP Jason Hammel had a 5.29 ERA in 32 starts with 145 strikeouts in 180.1 innings. Hahn posted a 5.30 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 69.2 innings with the A’s. RP Kelvin Herrera recorded 26 saves in 64 appearances, posting a 4.25 ERA with 56 saves in 59.1 innings.

Re-signing Moustakas is a big move for the Royals because losing him would have put a big hole in the middle of their lineup, especially with Hosmer also gone. The 38 home runs that he hit last season, however, were 16 more than he ever had in a season before so you would expect a drop in his power numbers. Gordon, on the other hand, had such a bad season by his standards that he should be able to bounce back this year. With Bonifacio now out for half of the year, OF Jorge Soler, who hit .144 last year, needs to step up and make up for some of that lost offense. The pitching staff lacks a true No. 1 starter, with Duffy currently pegged for that role, and will have a hard time keeping the team in games. Hahn will miss the first two months of the season, but it could be significantly longer than that. But SP Nathan Karns, who had an injury-shortened season last year could be healthy for the start of the season, or close to it, as he has been pitching in spring training.

In a tough division with two teams that made the playoffs last season, including the 102-win Indians, it’ll be tough for the Royals to find much traction in the AL Central this season. I think they may actually fall back to fourth place this year after the White Sox got better this winter. It’s looking like another season without a postseason appearance for the Royals.

Be sure to check back every day around 12pm Eastern for another team preview, see them all here, and follow me on Twitter for a link to each new post when it’s posted.

Source: http://www.royals.comhttp://www.baseball-reference.com

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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Philadelphia Phillies

Continuing with our previews of all 30 MLB teams, leading up to the start of the 2018 season, it is the Philadelphia Phillies, who finished in last place in the NL East last season.

The Phillies won just 66 last season, five fewer than the year before, but they have a young core with their team that has upside, including 3B Maikel Franco and OF Rhys Hoskins. They traded SS Freddy Galvis to the Padres in December to open up a spot for prospect J.P. Crawford. The Phillies also signed some veterans this winter, including 1B Carlos Santana and RP Pat Neshek, who they traded to the Rockies at last year’s trade deadline. They have some good young starting pitchers, including Vince Velasquez, who has 200-strikeout potential if he can make it through a season without an extended stay on the disabled list.

The offense hit .250 last season, which put the Phillies below the MLB average in the category, and their 174 home runs were the fifth-fewest in the majors. They were similarly low in most of the offensive categories. Franco was the team’s top power hitter with 24 home runs and 76 RBI, but he hit just .230 with a .690 OPS. 2B Cesar Hernandez hit .294 with 9 home runs and OF Aaron Altherr launched 19 homers and 65 RBI with a .272 average and .856 OPS. Hoskins played in just 50 games in the majors last season, but he hit 18 home runs and had 48 RBI in that limited time in the big leagues, showing he has power. With the Indians, Santana hit .259 with 23 home runs and 79 RBI.

The pitching staff was in the bottom half of the majors with a 4.55 ERA and 1,309 strikeouts. They recorded 33 saves, which was tied for the fifth-fewest in MLB. SP Aaron Nola led the starters with a 3.54 ERA and he struck out 184 batters in 168 innings over 27 starts. Velasquez was limited to 72 innings over 15 starts, but racked up 68 strikeouts in those games. He posted a 5.13 ERA, which was better than SP Nick Pivetta, who recorded a 6.02 ERA in 26 starts. Pivetta had 140 strikeouts in 133 innings. Young SPs Jerad Eickhoff and Ben Lively showed some promising signs but with room for improvement, as both posted ERAs above 4.25. RP Hector Neris handled the bulk of the closing duties, nailing down 26 saves with a 3.01 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 74 appearances, totaling 74.2 innings. In the 43 games he played for the Phillies, Neshek threw 40.1 innings with a 1.12 ERA and 45 strikeouts.

Looking ahead, the young core should improve this season as they get more experience against big-league pitching and guys like Hoskins get their first full season in the majors. Crawford could be a key to the Phillies scoring more runs if he can live up to expectations that have been set for him playing in the middle of the infield. Santana adds power to the lineup. The Phillies should also get some decent offensive production out of the catcher position, with Jorge Alfaro and Cameron Rupp expected to split the time behind the plate. If Velasquez can stay healthy this season — he’s never made more than 24 starts in a season — he would form a formidable top of the rotation with Nola, and Eickhoff has the potential to be a strong No. 2 or No. 3 in the rotation if he can return to his 2016 form, when his ERA was more than a run lower than it was last season. If things all come together for the pitchers, the Phillies could approach a .500 record, which they haven’t done since 2012.

The NL East has teams that are clearly better or worse than the rest of the division, with the Nationals the likely division winner and the Marlins expected to finish in the basement. The Phillies will probably finish third in the division this year, which would be an improvement over last year’s last-place finish, but if the Mets deal with injuries again this season, the Phillies could end up being the second-best team in the division.

Be sure to check back every day around 12pm Eastern for another team preview, see them all here, and follow me on Twitter for a link to each new post when it’s posted.

Sources: http://www.phillies.com, http://www.baseball-reference.com

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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: New York Mets

Up next in our preview of all 30 MLB teams, leading up to the start of the 2018 season, are the New York Metswho finished in fourth place in the NL East last season

Injuries prevented the Mets from living up to expectations last season and led to a 70-92 season, tying their worst record since 2009 and marking a 17-win drop from 2016. If the players can stay healthy — especially the pitchers — they should be competitive in the NL East again this season. The Mets’ biggest addition this offseason was 3B Todd Frazier, signing the free agent to a two-year contract to take over at the position with uncertainty about the future of longtime Met David Wright. The Mets also signed 1B Adrian Gonzalez and OF Jay Bruce — who they traded to the Indians at last year’s trade deadline — on offense along with pitchers Anthony Swarzak and Jason Vargas. Swarzak should end up in the bullpen, with Vargas likely sliding into the rotation, which already includes SPs Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and — when healthy — Matt Harvey. Gone this year are 1B Lucas Duda, 2B Neil Walker and RP Addison Reed.

The Mets were slightly below the MLB average last season with a .250 team batting average, but their 224 home runs put them in the top 10. Their .755 OPS was in the top half of the majors. Individually, OF Yoenis Cespedes led the team with a .292 average and .892 OPS to go along with 17 home runs and 42 RBI in just 81 games. Bruce led the team with 29 home runs and 75 RBI in 103 games before the Mets sent him to Cleveland around the trade deadline. In 145 games, SS Jose Reyes hit .246 with 15 home runs and 24 steals. 3B Wilmer Flores added 18 home runs in 110 games. In Frazier, the Mets are getting a player who hit just .213 with the White Sox and Yankees last season but totaled 27 homers and 76 RBI. Gonzalez played 71 games for the Dodgers, hitting .242 with 3 home runs and 30 RBI.

The pitching staff posted a 5.01 ERA, which was the third-worst in the majors, but 1,374 strikeouts placed the staff in the top 10. The Mets were in the bottom third of the league with 34 saves. In the rotation, deGrom made 31 starts — the only Met to surpass 30 starts last season– with a 3.53 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 201.1 record on the way to a 15-10 record, solidifying him as the team’s ace. SP Robert Gsellman had the next most starts on the squad with 22, and 25 total appearances, but pitched to a disappointing 5.19 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 119.2 innings. In 19 games, 18 starts, Harvey had a 6.70 ERA and struck out 67 batters in 92.2 innings. Matz was limited to 13 games last season that amounted to a 6.08 ERA, and Syndergaard started just seven times, with a 2.97 ERA. With the Royals last year, Vargas made 32 starts and had a 4.16 ERA with 134 strikeouts in 179.2 innings. Reed led the team with 19 saves last season and RP Jeurys Familia had 6 saves. He had just 26 appearances, limited by a suspension and shoulder injury, 4.38 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 24.2 innings.

The Mets need more out of their starting staff, and a repeat performance from deGrom, this season. Health will, of course, be important for that. Harvey and Syndergaard are expected to be healthy entering the season. Harvey needs to pitch much better than last season, as an ERA north of 6 won’t cut it, but if Syndergaard can continue to pitch the way he did in limited action in 2016, he will form a formidable 1-2 at the top of the rotation along with deGrom. Having guys like Gsellman and P Seth Lugo give the Mets pitching depth in case some of their anticipated starters continue to deal with injuries and/or poor performance in 2018. On offense, adding Frazier won’t help the Mets’ batting average, but should add more pop to the lineup behind Cespedes. Other than Frazier, the Mets aren’t likely to get much production from the infield that includes Gonzalez, 2B Asdrubal Cabrera and SS Amed Rosario, with Reyes expected to serve as backup utility role.

The Mets probably would have been around the .500 mark if they didn’t have as many injuries as they did, and I’m targeting them to be around there again this season. The offense leaves something to be desired, but if the starting rotation can stay healthy and perform close to what they can do, they should pitch well enough to keep the Mets in games. I think the Mets could be in a competition with the improved Phillies for second place in the East, behind the Nationals, who are still the best of the bunch in the division.

Be sure to check back every day around 12pm Eastern for another team preview, see them all here, and follow me on Twitter for a link to each new post when it’s posted.

Sources: http://www.mets.com, http://www.baseball-reference.com

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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Miami Marlins

Over the course of 30 days (or so) I am previewing all 30 MLB teams, leading up to the start of the 2018 season. The previews continue with the Miami Marlins, who finished in second place in the NL East last season.

The Marlins have been in the news a lot this offseason — and not in a positive way. Under new ownership, with baseball operations led by Derek Jeter, the team has been cutting payroll, trading away many of the their stars. The biggest piece to go was OF Giancarlo Stanton, who was traded to the Yankees in exchange for a package that included 2B Starlin Castro and minor leaguers Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. Other veterans traded by the Marlins this winter include OF Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. Among the young haul the Marlins got in return for those players are OF Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison from the Brewers. And they might not be done making deals yet with C J.T. Realmuto also rumored to be on the trading block. If he isn’t moved by the start of the season, he could be involved in a trade at the deadline this summer.

The Marlins’ 77 wins a year ago was a slight decrease from 2016. They had the third-highest batting average in the majors last season, but that won’t be the case this year with the likes of Stanton and Ozuna gone. Of the players remaining on the team, 1B Justin Bour was the top hitter last season with a .289 average, 25 home runs and 83 RBI. Realmuto hit .278 with 17 home runs and 65 RBI. Castro hit .300 with the Yankees last season, with 16 homers and 63 RBI while Brinson was just 5-for-47 in 21 games with the Brewers.

The pitchers posted a 4.97 ERA last season, which was tied for the fourth-worst in the majors, and their 1,202 strikeouts were also in the bottom five. The bullpen recorded 34 saves, which placed them in the bottom third of the league. SP Jose Urena was the best of the starters, with a 3.82 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 169.2 innings over 34 games, including 28 starts. SP Dan Straily struck out 170 batters in 181.2 innings to go along with a 4.26 ERA in 33 starts. RP Brad Ziegler, who took over as the team’s closer after RP AJ Ramos was traded to the Mets in July, put up a 4.79 ERA in 53 appearances. He recorded 10 saves and had just 26 strikeouts in 47 innings.

With the youth movement the Marlins are undertaking on offense, you can expect a steep drop-off this season, particularly in the outfield where Brinson, Derek Dietrich and Braxton Lee are expected to be the starters — Brinson only has 21 games of big-league experience and the next game Lee plays in Major League Baseball will be his first. Veteran journeyman Martin Prado is likely the Opening Day third baseman, with Miguel Rojas manning shortstop. If Realmuto is dealt, Bour and Castro will be the only hitters in the lineup with much of a positive track record in the majors. There’s not as much turnover in the pitching staff, but the hurlers they have don’t have much offside and likely won’t be much better — if at all — than the bottom-of-the-league stats they were putting up last season.

The Marlins won 77 games last season, but they may struggle to get to 60 wins this season. They traded away 114 of their 194 home runs when they sent Stanton, Ozuna and Yelich packing. Ozuna also hit .312 last year, while the other two batters were both above .280. It’s not going to be a good season for the Marlins, who are certainly going to finish in last place in the division and could end up competing for the worst record in the majors. They didn’t really pick up any top prospects in the trades they made this offseason, so their rebuilding process could take a few years before they become competitive once again.

Be sure to check back every day around 12pm Eastern for another team preview, see them all here, and follow me on Twitter for a link to each new post when it’s posted.

Sources: http://www.marlins.com, http://www.baseball-reference.com

 

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4th Annual 30 in 30ish MLB Previews: Atlanta Braves

Over the course of the next 30 days (or so) I will be previewing all 30 MLB teams, leading up to the start of the 2018 season. The series begins with a preview of the Atlanta Braves, who finished in third place in the NL East last season.

The Braves finished last season with four more wins than they had in 2016, but the team did worse in the second half of the season than the first, achieving a .400 winning percentage after the all-star break. The biggest move they made this offseason saw them trading veteran OF Matt Kemp to the Dodgers in exchange for a package of players that includes SPs Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy, along with IF Charlie Culberson. They also traded RP Jim Johnson to the Angels and acquired OF Preston Tucker in a trade with the Astros. Rather than making a splash in free agency, the Braves are relying on their youth to help improve the team. They are expected to have a young starting infield with 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson and 3B Johan Camargo all the favorites to land the starting jobs at their positions. OF Ronald Acuna, the team’s No. 1 prospect and one of the top prospects in Major League Baseball, also should get called up during the season to make his big league debut.

The team finished tied for fifth last season with a .263 average, but their power was lacking on offense with their 165 home runs the third-fewest in MLB. Their .738 OPS wasn’t as bad, but was still the 10th-lowest in the majors, and their 706 RBI were also near the bottom of the league. Unsurprisingly, 1B Freddie Freeman was their top hitter with a .307 average, 28 home runs and .989 OPS, which ranked fourth in the National League. On the other end of the spectrum, Swanson had a disappointing first full season in the majors as he hit just .232 with 6 home runs and a .636 OPS. OF Ender Inciarte hit .304 with 11 homers and 22 steals, and OF Nick Markakis  hit .275.

The pitching staff posted a 4.72 ERA last season, which was the seventh-worst in MLB. None of the regular starters had a ERA below 4.26, and that was now-departed SP R.A. Dickey. SP Julio Teheran, who should start the season at the top of the rotation had a career-worst 4.49 ERA in 32 starts, with 151 strikeouts — also a career low — in 188.1 innings as he went 11-13. SP Mike Foltynewicz made 28 starts, with one relief appearance, and posted a 4.79 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 154 innings. With the Dodgers, McCarthy posted a 3.98 ERA in 19 games, including 16 starts. Johnson led the team last season with 22 saves, but RP Arodys Vizcaino took over the closer’s role in the second half, recording 12 of his 14 games late in the season. Overall for the year, he was 5-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 57.1 innings.

If the Braves are going to be successful this season, it’ll likely be because of the young players having an impact on the club. The starting pitchers definitely need to have a better showing this season because the starters can’t all have ERAs near or above 4.50 if the team wants to contend for a spot in the postseason. Kazmir should compete for one of the last two spots in the rotation after missing all of last season with a hip injury. Young SPs Lucas Sims, Sean Newcomb and Max Fried will also be vying for rotation spots in spring training. Vizcaino pitched well last season and should be good for at least 30 saves in 2018 if he can duplicate the success he had last year. On offense, Swanson can’t have another season like he did last year. If he does, he may lose the starting shortstop job, possibly to Culberson, who is expected to serve a backup role around the infield as the season gets underway. Acuna could be an X-factor for the team. If the team gets off to a good start, he’ll likely got called up sooner rather later, but at 20 years old it might take him a little while to acclimate himself to playing in the big leagues. In three seasons in the minors, he has a .310 average, with 29 home runs, 119 RBI and 74 steals.

I don’t think guys like Teheran and Foltynewicz will do as badly this year as they did last season, and with the young players the Braves have on offense the team should be improved this season, but I don’t think they’ll be much better. They won 72 games last season and may be in the 75-76 range this season, but I don’t think they’ll be much better than that. That should be enough to stay out of last place in the division with the Marlins’ fire sale this offseason, but the Mets will also be better this season and could pass the Braves for third place in the East.

Be sure to check back every day around 12pm Eastern for another team preview, see them all here, and follow me on Twitter for a link to each new post when it’s posted.

Sources: http://www.atlantabraves.com, http://www.baseball-reference.com

 

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